Climate-Informed Load Forecasting & Electric Grid Modeling to Support a Climate Resilient Transition to Zero-Carbon

Research is development critical data streams and concepts, evaluating of a range of scenarios including consideration or climate extremes, and delivering model outputs to support decision-making in planning for reliability, resilience, equity, and

Resiliency, Health, and Safety Grid Decarbonization and Decentralization

Energy & Environmental Economics, Inc.

Recipient

San Francisco, CA

Recipient Location

11th

Senate District

17th

Assembly District

beenhere

$812,988

Amount Spent

refresh

Active

Project Status

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Project Update

In February 2023, the research team held its first Technical Advisory Committee meeting in collaboration with a related grant that will provide critical inputs portraying availability of zero-carbon generation resources in a changing climate. In March 2023, the research team provided a "model deep dive" session for TAC members and other interested stakeholders. TAC discussions have engaged representatives from electricity IOUs, the research community, multiple state agencies (CARB, CEC, CPUC), CAISO, and national labs. In parallel with TAC engagement and briefings to CEC staff and advisors, E3 has progressed toward revision of key energy system models for improved portrayal of climate risks.

The Issue

Traditional electric system planning processes, both demand-side and supply-side, do not holistically integrate the scientifically understood impacts from climate change. Given that these planning processes support electric system investments in the state, this omission of climate-informed data may be impeding cost-effective investments and hindering the state’s ability to adequately plan for climate impacts and climate resilience. As the state plans to meet ambitious climate and clean energy goals, electrification in the transportation, buildings and industrial sectors will lead to increased reliance on, and investment in, the electricity grid. Operational and planning challenges that will arise due to California’s efforts to evolve its grid to meet decarbonization targets will be exacerbated by climate impacts. Adequately considering climate impacts will help to ensure that the grid remains reliable for these critical sectors and that grid investments promote greater climate resilience, generate economic benefits for California and California ratepayers, improve safety, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Project Innovation

This project will develop new data and analysis to support robust climate-informed electricity sector modeling in California. The research team will leverage datasets and products under development through ongoing California Energy Commission (CEC)-funded EPIC research grants to develop novel datasets using the most recent climate model outputs. The team will develop analyses to parameterize climate impacts on electric sector model inputs and explore several different modeling methodologies to assess climate variability in planning. These analyses and data will have full Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) coverage to incorporate climate events spanning the WECC, and regional representation in California to understand impacts within the state on a more granular level. The outputs and products of these efforts will provide a foundation for climate-informed electric sector planning and modeling in the state.

Project Goals

Illuminate the expected frequency & magnitude of future climate events that will stress the electric grid as it evolves.

Parameterize climate impacts on electricity supply and demand and incorporate into load forecasting and systems modeling.

Extend the capabilities of economy-wide energy system models to better incorporate climate variability and uncertainty.

Create a climate-informed load forecast through mid-century that meets California’s decarbonization goals.

Explore scenarios and sensitivities of to illuminate electricity system resilience to climate change and extreme events.

Evaluate strategies for improving climate resilience of SB 100-compliant long-term demand and supply scenarios.

Assess the equity and affordability implications of concurrent climate and energy system changes on residential customers.

Project Benefits

This Agreement will result in the ratepayer benefits of greater electricity reliability, lower costs, and increased safety by incorporating climate impacts into planning and modeling so that it can be appropriately considered.

Reliability

Recipient will develop parameterized climate impact datasets, load forecasting, and an electricity resource planning toolkit that can assess and evaluate electric reliability in the context of a zero-carbon grid—taking into account variable and uncertain renewable electricity generation, electric loads, and climate impacts—to quantifiably ensure that California’s grid can maintain or exceed current levels of reliability.

Safety

Recipient will evaluate extreme climate scenarios in a manner that facilitates informed grid planning and points the way towards a safer, more resilient grid that can respond more effectively to future climate-change induced contingencies.

Key Project Members

Amber Mahone

Partner

Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.

Jessie Knapstein

Managing Consultant

Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.

Subrecipients

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Kit Batten Consulting

Match Partners

Energy &amp

Environmental Economics, Inc.