Comprehensive Open Source Development of Next Generation Wildfire Models for Grid Resiliency
The development of next-generation wildfire risk forecasting models to inform effective near-term management and long-term planning decisions.
Spatial Informatics Group, LLC
Recipient
Pleasanton, CA
Recipient Location
7th
Senate District
16th
Assembly District
$3,941,577
Amount Spent
Active
Project Status
Project Update
The project has completed most of the innovative wildfire science tasks. These include a model to optimize the placement of new weather stations to more cost effectively maximize the coverage of fire weather monitoring efforts and an analysis of the role of extreme weather on fire occurrence. The researchers have also advanced the characterization and mapping of forest fuels. A new burn laboratory was constructed to investigate the burning behavior of the large logs that are resulting from the mass timber die-off during the recent drought. The open-source near-term fire risk forecast tool became available in May 2020 (https://pyrecast.org/) and continues to be refined with user input. The platform provides tools that display forecasts for fire weather, active fire spread, and fire risk at up to a 14-day prediction horizon to provide situational awareness for utilities and first responders. The research team developed a long-term wildfire modeling system to inform utility planning. This model uses downscaled CMIP6 climate projection data coupled with vegetation data as a major driver of future fire. This aspect of the project was delayed due to dependencies on other projects; however, the team is now processing climate data and wildfire simulations and targeting to deliver wildfire projection outputs by end of June 2025. Data from this effort will be used to support California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment along with fulfilling other climate adaptation and vulnerability assessment needs.
The Issue
Many aspects of wildfires in California have changed in the past several decades, including climate patterns and the development of human infrastructure near wildlands. The impacts of wildfire on the electric grid have resulted in increased costs and reduced safety and reliability. Understanding the risks associated with wildfire remains challenging. Operational wildfire behavior models are not readily available to users nor well suited for predicting extreme fire behavior. Therefore, key stakeholders responsible for managing the grid -- including IOUs and state agencies -- lack tools and information that could improve near-term situational awareness and longer-term management and planning decisions.
Project Innovation
The project is advancing wildfire science by investigating the interaction of tree mortality, fuels, fire physics, and extreme fire weather and how findings from the research can be used to inform next-generation fire models. The project team developed PyreCast (https://pyrecast.org/), an open-source, scalable, and computationally efficient near-term fire forecasting platform that includes tools for forecasting fire weather, fire risk, and active fire spread for the grid (with predictive capabilities out to 14 days). To support grid planning, the team is developing long-term fire projections using a coupled fire-climate-vegetation statistical and dynamical model that integrates the latest downscaled climate projection data. To support California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment, the team is producing model outputs representing different scenarios, including a range of climate model simulations, two urban development footprints, and two vegetation management intensities. Model outputs, representing different scenario combinations, can be used to explore potential future fire impacts on the grid. To integrate the models into electric utility management and planning, the team is facilitating workshops with IOUs and others.
Project Goals
Project Benefits
The project will aid regulators and stakeholders in meeting statutory goals by addressing critical fire science gaps and applying the science to provide advanced forecasting capability. Specifically, the project will: 1) advance the science of measuring, modeling, and analyzing extreme weather events, tree mortality, and fire spread at scale; 2) advance risk modeling frameworks to include wind extrema, statewide maps of fuel loads, updated parameterizations, and indicators of where risk forecasting may underestimate fire risk due to gaps in science; and 3) advance the integration of science relating to vegetation dynamics, the wildland-urban interface, land-use, climate, and adaptation strategies, by building on existing models and comparing approaches.
Affordability
The project seeks to improve IOU planning and decision-making related to wildfire risk, improving grid reliability and safety and lowering costs.
Reliability
With the use of more granular, dynamic fire-spread models, mitigation activities can be more targeted, and damages associated with fire and outages can be reduced.
Safety
With improved information on extreme weather and fire behavior and on long-term shifts in wildfire risks, utilities, residents, and wildfire responders can develop more effective safety measures, both in real-time and in longer-term investment and local development decisions.
Key Project Members
Shane Romsos
David Saah
Subrecipients
The Regents of the University of California, on behalf of the Berkeley Campus
Sonoma Technology, Inc.
The Brattle Group
The Regents of the University of California, Merced
Eagle Rock Analytics, Inc.
Reax Engineering Inc.
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Salo Sciences, Inc.
University of San Francisco
Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory
Prometheus Fire Consulting
Deer Creek Resources, Inc.
Clere, Inc.
Pyrologix, LLC
Vibrant Planet
USGS- Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center
University of New Mexico
Drew Consulting, Inc.
Match Partners
The Regents of the University of California, Merced
Technical Support Unknown
Eagle Rock Analytics, Inc.
US Geological Society (USGS)
Spatial Informatics Group, LLC
Reax Engineering Inc.
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Salo Sciences, Inc.
Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory
Pyrologix, LLC
USGS- Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center
Lumen Energy Strategy, LLC
