Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of Priority Projections
The Regents of California, San Diego
Recipient
La Jolla, CA
Recipient Location
38th
Senate District
77th
Assembly District
$1,150,249
Amount Spent
Active
Project Status
Project Update
A robust downscale climate data set for California is now available on the Cal-Adapt Analytics Engine. The data set includes several variables dynamically and Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA)2-Hybrid downscaled to 3 km, projections from two hydrologic models, and extreme sea level projections. Additionally, general use projections were identified as a subset of models that could be used if necessary.
The Issue
To plan for and adapt to climate change impacts requires state-of-the-art information at fine spatial scales. However, global climate projections are carried out at coarse resolution. To be useful for California applications, the global models' output must first be downscaled to a much finer scale to account for the complex topography and regional climate of California's varied landscape. Many types of data are needed, such as temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, snowpack, runoff and sea level rise. This work is timely as the international climate community has released a new set of global climate predictions.
Project Innovation
This project integrated the latest bias correction and downscaling approaches applied to the recently produced global climate models (GCMs) with an engagement process to develop a robust, usable, set of climate projections applicable for California. The dynamical and hybrid statistical-dynamical downscaling along with the hydrologic modeling, hourly sea level projections proposed is unique. It will provide California with one of the world's most comprehensive, high resolution climate data sets and by working with stakeholders the data developed will be regionally relevant. This project provides the climate projections that IOUs and other stakeholders need to plan and adapt to such changes. Both a full and comprehensive set of data, and a reduced set of general use projections will be supplied. The project will supply data that can support the 5th Assessment and studies in agriculture, human health, water management, infrastructure planning, energy demand, and wildfire threats.
Project Benefits
This project will lead to technological advancement and breakthroughs to overcome barriers to the achievement of the State of California's statutory energy goals by significantly advancing the physical realism, spatial detail, frequency, completeness, applicability, and estimation of uncertainty of the climate data used by California IOUs and state agencies to understand the effects of climate change on their operations and environment. The production process of the data will also be improved in a critical way, by incorporating stakeholder input and feedback at the project's early stages so that the climate scientists and domain/application experts can together determine the information needed to meet statutory, operational, and environmental goals.
Reliability
The downscaled climate projections will provide information to the IOUs and broader energy sector about how climate change may impact energy demand and supply based on changes in temperature, humidity, winds, and streamflow. This enables planning for future extremes and trends which are likely not captured in the historical records.
Safety
The downscaled climate projections will provide information and scenarios of how climate change could impact infrastructure affecting both reliability and safety of the electricity system.
Key Project Members
Dan Cayan
Julie Kalansky
Subrecipients
The Regents of the University of California on behalf of the Berkeley campus
The Regents of the University of California on behalf of the Los Angeles Campus
Match Partners
The Regents of the University of California on behalf of the Los Angeles Campus
