The Distributional Electricity Impacts of Climate Change on California's Residential Communities
Developing a baseline for climate change impacts on energy demand and air quality in disadvantaged communities
The Regents of the University of California, on behalf of the Berkeley Campus
Recipient
Berkeley, CA
Recipient Location
9th
Senate District
14th
Assembly District
$193,014
Amount Spent
Completed
Project Status
Project Result
The project was completed in 2020 and the final report is in the final revision stage. Disadvantaged communities, as defined by SB 535, are projected to see larger percentage increases in electricity consumption and smaller decreases in natural gas consumption than their non-SB 535 counterparts. Disadvantaged communities experience twice the increase in ambient concentrations of NOx, SO2, and particulate matter compared to non-disadvantaged communities. However, increases in ambient concentrations from a 20 percent increase in demand are extremely small.
The Issue
California is a leader in addressing climate change and is aggressive in its policies to reduce greenhouse gases as well as local pollutants. While many have studied the national or statewide impacts of climate change, no rigorous analytics have been done to identify how different communities are affected by climate change using empirically calibrated dose response functions at the community (ZIP code or census tract) level. Communities will not be affected uniformly; damages will vary by community as a result of climatic conditions, income levels, and population density.
Project Innovation
This project studied the impacts of rising temperatures on electricity demand and the related emissions of pollutants from current generation stations. On the demand side, the researchers created an empirically calibrated statistical model using household level data to estimate household response of electricity demand to temperature. On the supply side, the study estimated the implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme heat events from climate change on peak demand and concentrations of criteria air pollutants in the absence of policy intervention or technology change. These changes in peak demand and air quality were then compared between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities.
Project Benefits
This project generated new and precise estimates of the forecasted damages to California's residential communities due to climate change. This created a scenario in the absence of additional standards and policies (such as additional emissions abatement requirements) and hence created a baseline for calculating their value. These two approaches provide the most comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of climate change on California's residential communities and particularly on disadvantaged communities.
Affordability
This project could lower costs by forecasting the changes to electricity demand because of climate change so that IOUs, CAISO, and CPUC can plan a more efficient, effective, resilient, and low-cost electricity system with less environmental impact.
Key Project Members
